In a shocking move, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld the ban on TikTok about 48 hours before its ban is set to take effect. I last wrote about the potential TikTok Ban in early 2024 and it seems like it will actually happen here in January 2025. At the time, I was writing about the potential financial impact on finance influencers that were using the revenue sharing program on TikTok to make some very impressive amounts of money for discussing personal finance topics.
I never jumped on the TikTok bandwagon, but I’ve been seeing quite a few TikTokers in other industry spaces decrying the ban because of the five figure monthly incomes they are currently generating that will fall to zero immediately. The not so surprising part of these influencers sob stories is that they have zero savings and have been living paycheck to paycheck on these six-figure TikTok revenue sharing payments. Many of them are now resorting to starting GoFundMe campaigns to try to pay their rent next month.
The consequences of the TikTok ban are far reaching and at the core of the issue is the fact that it is controlled by a Chinese company and/or the Chinese government itself. But let’s take a look at how banning TikTok could have a broader impact than just the income of some popular influencers.|
Economic and Cultural Consequences
Many influencers and businesses depend on TikTok for marketing, product launches, and direct engagement with consumers. In 2020, a report suggested that TikTok’s U.S. operations generated billions of dollars in revenue and provided employment for thousands of Americans. A ban could harm this part of the economy, forcing companies to divert resources to other platforms or reconsider their marketing strategies altogether.
On a cultural level, TikTok has become a major force in shaping trends, music, and memes. A ban could alter how trends are formed and how content is consumed, shifting cultural dynamics and possibly leaving a gap that other platforms may struggle to fill. For instance, Instagram and YouTube might see some growth in user engagement, but they do not have the same viral nature that TikTok does. The loss of a globally influential platform could reverberate beyond just social media, affecting industries like music, fashion, and even politics.
Geopolitical Ramifications
A U.S. ban on TikTok would exacerbate tensions between the U.S. and China, where TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, is based. The Chinese government would likely view the ban as part of a broader geopolitical strategy to limit China’s influence in the digital space, and may retaliate with regulatory measures or even a ban on U.S.-owned platforms operating in China, such as Facebook, Twitter, and Google.
The move could also serve as a precedent for other nations to consider banning TikTok or scrutinizing foreign-owned apps more closely. We could see a global wave of scrutiny against platforms from countries perceived as geopolitical rivals, leading to fragmentation in the global internet space. For instance, European nations or other allies of the U.S. might be pressured to take similar actions, although they would likely face strong pushback from both consumers and the tech industry.
Legal Challenges and Future Uncertainty
Despite the Supreme Court upholding the TikTok ban, it is likely that legal battles will continue. Various interest groups, including free speech advocates, tech companies, and civil liberties organizations, will almost certainly challenge the decision in lower courts or push for new legislation to protect individual rights and business interests. The potential for constitutional challenges based on First Amendment grounds would also be a significant factor, especially considering TikTok’s role as a platform for personal expression and creativity.
The Supreme Court ruling could trigger a larger debate about the power of the government to regulate foreign technology companies, especially regarding data privacy concerns and the scope of national security threats. Congress might respond by crafting new laws or regulations around tech companies, data protection, and digital sovereignty.
ByteDance’s Response and Possible Divestiture
With the Supreme Court upholding the TikTok ban, ByteDance will likely face increasing pressure to either divest its U.S. operations or find alternative ways to keep the platform accessible. In the past, the company explored selling its U.S. operations to a domestic company, but such a deal was complicated by national security concerns and legal barriers. ByteDance might attempt to negotiate a settlement with U.S. authorities or explore other strategies, such as creating a new, fully independent entity to operate in the U.S. or modifying the platform to meet U.S. regulatory standards.
Impact on U.S. Tech Regulation and the Broader Landscape
The Supreme Court ruling in favor of banning TikTok could open the door for more regulatory oversight of foreign tech companies operating in the U.S. It might also inspire the U.S. government to impose stricter data privacy laws or cybersecurity regulations, especially for apps with large international user bases. The ruling could prompt greater scrutiny of other Chinese tech companies, such as Huawei and Tencent, and could even affect the future operations of companies like Google and Facebook, as U.S. regulators look more carefully at their global influence.
Overall, the Supreme Court ban on TikTok could reshape the digital landscape, impact millions of users, alter the course of U.S.-China relations, and possibly trigger a rethinking of how digital platforms are regulated in an increasingly interconnected world. The decision would resonate far beyond TikTok itself, setting important precedents for future tech policy and international diplomacy.
At the end of the day, Donald Trump is going to evaluate the political benefit to himself for deciding one way or the other on the TikTok ban. My hypothesis is that when he realizes how many young people are furious that TikTok was banned that he will undo the ban through some sort of “negotiation” with ByteDance and then claim that he is the sole reason for TikTok being brought back from the dead. There is one thing that will never change and that is Donald Trump’s unquenching desire for constant praise and adulation.
